Where will Salesforce stock (CRM) be at the end of 2019? $178.40! I used R to produce a multi-variate time series model and Tableau to visualize historical CRM stock prices (grey line) vs my model (blue line), including my Dec 2019 prediction (red dot). The model was built in February using historical stock price data from 2004 to 2018. Play around with the Tableau viz (link below)!

Independent Variables:

U.S. consumer sentiment index (published by the University of Michigan)

GDP

CRM historical stock prices

Other tech stocks (IBM, Oracle, SAP)

Month (as categorical, for seasonality)

High-level model process:

Linear regression model created for log-transformed historical data

Uni-variate ARIMA time series models produced for each independent variable (excluding month)

ARIMA model output used to predict monthly 2019 data points and these data points were then log-transformed

Log-transformed ARIMA data points joined into one data set and processed as input to the original linear regression model created above

Linear regression score outputs were exponentiated

The model coefficients were incorporated into Tableau for a “what-if” style interactive visualization

Source:

Javier’s Salesforce Stock Prediction on Tableau Public